Climate change can unexpectedly impact everyday places, such as the grocery store. In the last four years, food prices have risen by 25 percent, leading to higher costs for staples like beef, sugar, and citrus.
A recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment warns that extreme heat is contributing to rising food prices and predicts a further increase. Heat-related inflation, termed “heatflation,” could drive global food prices up by around 3 percentage points annually and by about 2 percentage points in North America. This could also contribute to overall inflation rates, with extreme weather events potentially leading to a 0.3 to 1.2 percentage point increase in inflation annually, depending on countries’ carbon emissions.
Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School, describes these potential increases in prices as “massive.” This could have a significant impact, as the Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation under 2 percent, whereas consumer prices rose by 3.2 percent within the last year.
Extreme heat directly affects food prices by causing crop failures, which in turn escalates the costs of food products such as flour. For example, during the heatwaves of 2022 in Europe, food prices spiked due to crop failures aggravated by the region’s scorching temperatures.
The study analyzed price indices across 121 countries over the past 25 years, revealing that no region is immune to potential price shocks. North Africa and the Middle East are projected to face some of the most significant price impacts due to their already hot climate disrupting crop yields.
Experts believe that the study’s findings may be understated, and that follow-up studies could reveal even higher numbers. This paints a concerning picture for the future affordability of food.
The connection between climate change and rising prices, termed “climateflation,” has gained attention recently, particularly as climate change exacerbates inflation rates. Extreme heat, rather than shifts in precipitation, appears to be the primary driver of price increases due to climate change.
These findings add credibility to the Inflation Reduction Act signed by President Joe Biden in 2022. While the name was initially seen as a marketing ploy, it now appears to accurately reflect the reality of climate-driven inflation and rising prices.
This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.