The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states that they are constantly working to improve the tools used for storm forecasting. This year, new models will be introduced to enhance the accuracy of hurricane predictions, including models that track intensity during hurricane season.
One new feature being tested by the agency is a forecast count that incorporates traditional elements but includes models or views for inland areas under tropical storm and hurricane warnings, displayed in a color-coded format. The updated version will focus on identifying wind hazards not only at coastal areas but also further inland where tropical storm and hurricane winds can cause significant damage to residents under watches and warnings.
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Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, expressed hope that these advancements will change how people perceive storm hazards. The NHC is also aiming to issue warnings about dangers like storm surges more frequently, especially at times when those in the path are more likely to see them.
Brennan mentioned a policy change where warnings can now be adjusted more frequently, every three hours, to reflect smaller changes in the storm’s path and intensity. The NHC predicts at least 25 named storms for 2024, with 13 likely to become hurricanes, including 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher intensity.
Despite the forecasted numbers, Brennan advises not to focus on them but to acknowledge the annual risk of hurricanes and prepare accordingly.
