Zinke, Tranel to square off in western House race

An early tally by the Montana Secretary of State’s Office had Zinke with 75% of the primary vote on Tuesday night against Flathead Republican Mary Todd.

The Associated Press called the race for Zinke 40 minutes after the polls closed. Tranel did not face a primary.

At 10:30 the results released by the Secretary of State’s Office, Zinke had 26,912 votes to Todd’s 9,079.

Todd had pitched herself as the “more constitutional” candidate, but Zinke’s three previous terms in Congress made him much better versed in the issues. He’s also enjoyed some proximity to former President Donald Trump as a member of Trump’s cabinet while serving as U.S. secretary of the interior.

“Thank you to Montana Republicans for trusting me to carry our flag in November,” Zinke said on social media. “This race is about protecting our borders, our kids, our heritage and our paychecks. Monica Tranel is a trainwreck who wants boys in girls sports, men in women’s locker rooms, higher Biden taxes and more illegal immigrants. That ain’t Montana.”

Zinke won the 2022 general election for the newly drawn western district by about 3 percentage points against Tranel, who was running her first statewide campaign for office.

The Cook Political Report last week designated the race as “likely Republican,” citing Zinke’s narrower primary field and the support of party leadership.

Tranel’s campaign, meanwhile, will see some degree of national Democratic support this year with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifying the western Montana race for its targeted “Red to Blue” program.

It’s unclear yet how top ballot races will impact the tight margins: Trump’s campaign (whatever that may look like following his criminal conviction by jury trial last week) is expected to jolt turnout, while Democrats expect U.S. Sen. Jon Tester to energize the base across Montana.

Zinke was among the Republicans who uniformly rejected Trump’s conviction by a jury last week as a “sham” put on political forces trying to tank the Republican presidential frontrunner.

Tranel won just five counties in the 2022 primary, but three of them — Missoula, Gallatin, Silver Bow — count for much of the population of the district that’s largely west of the Continental Divide. The only rural areas that voted for the Democrat were Anaconda-Deer Lodge and Glacier counties.

This round, Tranel faced no Democratic primary challengers, and instead spent the time focusing feedback from community listening sessions into a three-step plan to address Montana’s lack of affordable housing.

“This campaign is built on the hard work of volunteers across the district who contribute their time, energy, and belief that a better Montana is on the horizon,” Tranel said in a statement Tuesday night. “I’m so grateful to the Montanans across this district that have already joined our movement fighting for a better Montana, not only for ourselves, but for generations to come. This is my home, and I want my daughters to have the same opportunities I had.”

Libertarian John Lamb that year claimed nearly 4% of the vote. This year Dennis Hayes is on the Libertarian ticket for the western congressional district.

Through mid-May, Zinke had raised nearly $6 million this cycle, with $2.5 million in the bank after expenses. Tranel through the same reporting period had raised $2.3 million and had $1.5 million cash on hand.