Surprising Choices: Dark Horses and Sleepers

One of the deeper and more fascinating Belmont Stakes races will greet bettors on Saturday at 6:41 p.m. ET from Saratoga Race Course in Upstate New York. 

At the top of the odds board are Sierra Leone (9/5) and Mindframe (7/2), but we’re looking below them at some Belmont Stakes long shot picks to consider, including exotic bets.

On June 8, Saratoga Race Course will host the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes. For new customers in AR, CA, DE, ID, FL, MN, MT, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, WA looking to wager on the third Triple Crown race, there is a generous FanDuel Belmont bonus offer available: 

The FanDuel Belmont Stakes promo is worth up to $500 on your first horse racing wager once you register, make a deposit and place your wager on the race. If that first bet loses, FanDuel will reimburse you with a racing credit to match those losses up to $500. 

Wagering on the race is officially open as of June 6.

Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan and Seize The Grey represent the best of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes fields. Mindframe represents the betting trend of a lightly raced horse backed by a prominent trainer (Todd Pletcher) and jockey (Irad Ortiz).

Some entry in this Belmont Stakes group is going to be overlooked. Some tickets are going to pay more than you think they would. Here’s an attempt to find some.

Remember that odds won’t become official until post time, per pari-mutuel rules. These odds are the morning-line numbers that accompanied the draw on Monday night.

What is the Preakness Stakes winner doing at such high odds? Seize The Grey has the rail and needs to go early to avoid being pocketed.

Oddsmakers seem correct to figure he may get into a wicked duel with Dornoch, Mindframe, Antiquarian and the Wine Steward, among others.

That would set the stage for Sierra Leone and Mystik Dan to close.

But here’s the thing: He wasn’t supposed to get the lead from Imagination in the Preakness Stakes, yet he did. He wasn’t supposed to hold off Mystik Dan once the closer pulled astride him at the top of the Preakness Lane, but he did.

Seize The Grey goes 1 1/4 miles for the first time, but what if he is coming into his own and that’s not evident yet?

The expectation that he’ll be vanquished in a speed duel is already baked into the price. Maybe he won’t be.

Because he faded at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch and finished sixth, it’s easy to overlook his middle move.

What if the Wood Memorial winner is able to sit behind a sizzling front-running pace and save that move to the stretch?

It would not take a monstrous adjustment, just a ride that is better timed. Seize The Grey has the stalk-close style that could fit into the flow of this race.

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This is a betting-board selection. If he drifts down to 7/2 or 3/1, he’s not a sleeper. But 5/1 for the Kentucky Derby winner, if that stays, may be the best value on the board, and would be a sleeper.

Here’s what bettors can love about Mystik Dan: He always has run well and been able to hug the rail, saving ground.

Here comes the exotics razzle dazzle, which does not have to cost much to deliver high leverage for a $4 wager. The base for me is Sierra Leone (9) and Mystik Dan (3) finishing in the first two spots.

Build out from there. You have to get the right horses with them in the third and fourth slots, our bets are with Seize The Grey (1) and Mindframe (10).

You can also include or expand the ticket with Antiquarian (5), although the cost jumps to $12 with an addition to the bet. 

Antiquarian, 12-1, has an interesting connection to the Belmont Stakes. He won the Peter Pan, which produced the 2023 Belmont champion Arcangelo.

Granted, the recent Peter Pan was at Aqueduct and this is a new 1 1/4-mile distance, but a horse winning the Peter Pan may be reaching top form and flying under the radar.

Looking to take four horses underneath the top two? Add Resilience, with 10-1 odds (2) to the mix and the cost is $24. The $24 ticket looks like 3-9 with 1, 10, 2, 5. (If you like different horses, plug them into this formula and see how you like it).

Here’s a comparison: if you box four horses in a $1 superfecta, that’s $24. But if you can nail the first two, you can expand the number of horses in your overall ticket to six (more than half the field) for the same $24.

You can add a fifth horse for $40, but four is where I think the value cuts off.

Bettors use this wager several ways. Those who think they can hone down to two horses in the first two spots and two or three in the third and fourth slots may take this ticket multiple times.

In considering all of this, watch the odds on Mindframe. If his odds go down from 7/2 and both he and Sierra Leone (9/5 chalk) finish in the top 3, this won’t pay so well.

Same goes if bettors drop the odds on Seize The Grey or any other horse with value. It’s a big juggle. And a fun one. Good luck.

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