President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to North Korea sent a strong signal that he is willing to challenge Western interests like never before in the escalating confrontation over Ukraine. The pact he signed with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un includes provisions for mutual military assistance between Moscow and Pyongyang in case of attack, as well as the possibility of Russia providing weapons to North Korea for the first time. This move has raised concerns about destabilizing the Korean Peninsula and impacting the broader region.
Putin’s actions have intensified worries in Washington and Seoul about a potential alliance between North Korea and Russia, where North Korea would provide munitions for Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that could enhance Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile program.
A landmark agreement
The new agreement with North Korea marks the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. The pact was compared to a 1961 treaty between the Soviet Union and North Korea, which was replaced in 2000. Vladimir Putin’s remarks in North Korea, denouncing the United States as a “worldwide neocolonialist dictatorship,” have raised concerns about his recklessness and future actions.
South Korea responded to the agreement by considering sending arms to Ukraine, a significant policy shift. However, Putin warned against this move, stating it would be a mistake and lead to consequences for South Korea.
Potential weapons for Pyongyang
Last month, Putin warned about providing long-range weapons to others in response to NATO’s actions in Ukraine. He followed up on this by suggesting that Russia could supply weapons to North Korea. This has raised concerns that Russia could share weapon technologies with North Korea, potentially enhancing its ballistic missile capabilities.
While raising the possibility of violating U.N. sanctions by supplying weapons to Pyongyang, Putin also indicated that Russia would seek to ease restrictions at the international level to maintain deniability and avoid accusations of breaching sanctions.
Challenging the West
By linking potential arms shipments to Pyongyang with Western actions in Ukraine, Putin has sent a clear message to Ukraine’s allies. He warned against escalating the situation and challenged the West to consider the consequences of pushing Russia further. Putin’s remarks were seen as an attempt to deter increased support for Ukraine as Russia advances new offensives.
Treading cautiously with China
Putin’s visits to North Korea have presented a new challenge to China, North Korea’s top ally. This move could potentially allow Kim Jong Un to reduce his reliance on Beijing. While Russia has increasingly depended on China for energy exports and technology due to Western sanctions, the Kremlin will likely be cautious in its relationship with North Korea to avoid upsetting Beijing.
