Most U.S. adults plan to watch some element of Thursday’s presidential debate, and many believe it will be important for the campaigns of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Both candidates remain generally unpopular as they gear up for their first face-off since 2020. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, holds a slight enthusiasm advantage with his base compared to President Biden, the Democratic incumbent.
Approximately 6 in 10 U.S. adults express high likelihood of watching the debate live or in clips, or reading about or listening to analysis of the candidates’ performance in the news or on social media.
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The poll indicates that many Americans are expected to tune into at least some part of Thursday’s debate despite its unusually early timing in the campaign season. Supporters of both Biden and Trump view the debate as a crucial test for their candidate or simply as a must-watch spectacle.
“I think it’s super important,” said Victoria Perdomo, a 44-year-old Trump supporter in Coral Springs, Florida. “It shows America what you’re going to see for the next four years.”
Nic Greene, a libertarian registered independent, plans to vote for Trump as the “least worst candidate.” He believes debates do not significantly influence voter decisions but expects to be entertained and intends to listen to post-debate analysis on podcasts.
“I think the majority of people have their minds made up with or without these debates,” he said. “It’s a circus.”
Both sides see the debate as important
About half of Americans consider the debate highly important for the success of Biden’s campaign, while around 4 in 10 view it as crucial for Trump’s campaign. Roughly 3 in 10 Americans believe it is very important for both campaigns.
Most Democrats perceive the upcoming debate as extremely or very important for Biden’s campaign, while about half of Republicans hold the same view for the importance of the debate for Trump’s campaign. Only about one-third of independents see the debate as highly important for either campaign.
Arthur Morris, a 40-year-old operations manager, remains undecided among Biden, Trump, or a third-party option. He, like many Americans, harbors concerns about the mental acuity of the aging candidates and views President Biden’s debate performance as a critical assessment.
Trump, Morris notes, needs to demonstrate trustworthiness following the events of January 6, 2021, and a recent conviction in a hush money scheme. About 4 in 10 Americans are likely to watch or listen to some or all of the debate live, while a similar number plan to watch clips later. Additionally, around 4 in 10 anticipate consuming commentary about the debate and candidate performance in the news or on social media.
Voters are still unhappy about their options
Both Biden and Trump enter the debate with low favorability ratings. Approximately 6 in 10 U.S. adults hold a somewhat unfavorable view of President Biden, with similar numbers expressing negativity towards Trump.
Majority of Americans are dissatisfied with President Biden and Trump being their party’s likely nominees. The poll reflects greater satisfaction among Republicans for Trump’s re-nomination compared to Democrats’ satisfaction with Biden’s anticipated re-nomination.
About 3 in 10 Americans are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden as their party’s likely nominees, with independents and Democrats being more likely than Republicans to hold this view.
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Republicans and Democrats have a more negative perception of the opposing party’s candidate rather than a positive view of their own. Most Republicans have an unfavorable view of President Biden, while most Democrats view Trump negatively.
While approximately 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable view of President Biden, a similar percentage of Republicans hold a positive opinion of Trump. President Biden’s approval ratings on handling various issues remain consistent, with only 4 in 10 U.S. adults supporting his approach to immigration.
“I do believe there has been some progress under Biden, but I believe it’s Congress who is the one stalling on any of the policies that Biden wants to proceed with,” said Jane Quan-Bell, 70, a school librarian from Chico, California, and a Democrat.
The poll was conducted June 20-24, 2024, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
