It remains uncertain how the June debate will impact President Biden’s chances of reelection in the long term. However, an expert suggests that the president should continue to run.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, spoke with Scripps News. His “Keys to the White House” model has accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections. According to his formula, the debate did not alter the odds.
“Debates do not have predictive value. Hillary Clinton won all 3 debates and still lost. Many of the same pundits who claim Biden is doomed made similar claims about Trump after the Access Hollywood tapes,” Lichtman stated. “None of the pundits or analysts advocating for Biden to withdraw have a track record of predicting elections, yet they assert they know what Democrats should do.”
Lichtman believes that Democrats’ best chance of winning is with President Biden in the lead.
“With Biden remaining in the race, he secures the incumbency key and the contest key as he was uncontested. This means that six out of the remaining eleven keys would have to be lost to predict his defeat. If Democrats replace Biden, they forfeit the incumbency and contest keys without a clear successor in line. This would require only four more keys to be lost,” Lichtman explained.
Even beyond the scope of these keys, Lichtman warns that replacing Biden with a new candidate could place the party in historically challenging circumstances.
“This would create an open seat and a contentious or uncertain nomination process,” Lichtman noted. “Since the start of the century, the White House party has never won under such conditions.”
Related stories: As some want Biden off the ballot, replacing him as Democratic nominee wouldn’t be easy
