It remains unclear how June’s debate will impact President Biden’s chances of reelection in the long term. However, one expert emphasizes that the president should continue in the race.
Allan Lichtman, a distinguished history professor at American University, shared his insights with Scripps News. Known for his “Keys to the White House” model, Lichtman accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections. According to his formula, the debate did not alter the odds.
“Debates do not hold predictive value. Hillary Clinton won all 3 debates and still lost. Many pundits who now suggest Biden is doomed previously declared Trump as doomed after the Access Hollywood tapes,” Lichtman stated. “None of those advising Biden to withdraw have a proven track record in election predictions, yet they confidently offer advice to Democrats.”
Lichtman asserts that the Democrats’ best chance of success lies with President Biden leading the charge.
“With Biden in the running, he secures the incumbency key and contest key due to his uncontested position. This means six out of the remaining eleven keys must shift to predict his defeat. If Biden is replaced, Democrats forfeit the incumbency and contest keys without a clear successor, necessitating only four more keys to fall.”
Furthermore, Lichtman warns that substituting Biden with a new candidate could plunge the party into historical circumstances that are challenging to overcome.
“This scenario would result in an open seat and a contentious or uncertain nomination process,” Lichtman cautioned. “Consider how often in the past century the White House party emerged victorious under such conditions. Never.”
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