From a moisture standpoint, June has been a disappointment for fire managers and weather officials.
Typically one of the wettest months, this June has seen 50% to 60% less precipitation, according to Troy Blandford, water information specialist for the State Library at Montana State University.
“It’s fair to say it did not pan out for much of the state,” he told the Governor’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee on Thursday.
A good month of moisture, and then a bad month, has been common this year as Montana saw below average snowfall this winter and then had May storms that closed Bozeman Pass and added to mountain snowpack.
Unfortunately, the long-term forecast for this summer is for stable weather, stable meaning above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation. That’s especially concerning in parts of the northwest corner of the state that are already seeing drought conditions — places like Cascade, Toole and Teton counties.
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It’s also bad news for rivers in the region that are running low and warm.
“The Blackfoot River is in pretty rough shape this year,” Adam Strainer, of Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, told the Fish and Wildlife Commission last week. “Look for likely drought closures in the future there.”
Strainer added that although May moisture provided a little boost, the lower reaches of the Ruby, Madison, Beaverhead and Big Hole rivers and the entire Jefferson River were already approaching or exceeding water temperatures of 70 degrees. Water temperatures above 68 degrees stress trout.
Warmer water will result in “hoot owl” closures in the next couple of weeks, Strainer predicted. Such closures restrict fishing to the coolest periods of the day, with the waters closed to angling between 2 p.m. and midnight. Temps have to hit 73 degrees three days in a row for the restriction to be enacted.
Looking back to the last 100 years, Blandford said only one or two were drier in portions of northwest Montana.
Aaron Fisaschetti, a hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, said this year is shaping up to be comparable to 2001 which was a bad year for stream flows, precipitation and fires.
Cory Calnan, deputy fire chief for the state Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, said he’s concerned about the hot, dry forecast going into the Fourth of July weekend since there is a lot of grass that is now drying out, excellent tinder for starting fires.
So far this season the state has had 473 fires on 5,713 acres, a number that has grown in the last few days as more fires have ignited. So far this year, 94% have been human caused.
Even if Montana is spared a bad fire season, forecasts for the northwest show much of Idaho, the southeast corner of Oregon and northwestern Washington as areas that could see high fire activity. A fire is already burning near Bend, Oregon. This could mean a smoky summer extending into September for Montana and its visitors, even if there are few fires here.
Calnan said a normal fire season for Montana would mean more than 3,000 fires this year torching around 470,000 acres. Last year was tracking toward a serious fire season in northwest Montana, but heavy rains in August came to the rescue. Last year, the state saw 1,600 fires on 120,000 acres.
