ATLANTA (AP) — Democrats are expressing concern about whether President Joe Biden, at 81 years old, is capable of both fulfilling his duties and defeating Donald Trump.
Looking back at previous presidential campaigns provides little reason for optimism.
Historically, incumbent presidents who face challenges within their own party late in their first term struggle to secure a second term. George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Gerald Ford all faced significant challenges in their reelection campaigns.
Despite not having a significant primary challenger, Biden’s performance in the debate against Trump raised concerns among his allies. They have privately worried about his ability to serve until the age of 86, and more immediately, whether he can defeat the 78-year-old Republican former president.
The pattern from previous elections suggests that incumbent presidents facing internal party challenges usually do not win a second term.
George H.W. Bush and the ‘culture war’ of 1992
George H.W. Bush, a moderate Republican, faced challenges from the right flank in his bid for reelection. His failure to secure the nomination in 1992 was attributed to his broken tax pledge and a faltering economy.
Primary challengers like Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan emerged, leading to Bush’s defeat in the general election against Bill Clinton.
Jimmy Carter and the Kennedy ‘dream’ in 1980
Jimmy Carter faced challenges from within his own party during his bid for reelection in 1980. A primary challenge from Ted Kennedy and Carter’s handling of the Iran hostage crisis contributed to his defeat against Ronald Reagan.
Gerald Ford and the budding Reagan revolution in 1976
Gerald Ford’s primary challenge from Ronald Reagan in 1976 signaled a shift in the Republican party towards conservatism, leading to Ford’s defeat against Carter in the general election.
When a president did step aside: LBJ and 1968
LBJ’s decision not to seek reelection in 1968 followed a string of challenges in the early primaries. The Democratic party faced a turbulent convention and ultimately lost to Nixon in the general election.
Looking at historical precedent, Democrats may have cause for concern as they evaluate Biden’s chances in the upcoming election.
