In most polls in North Carolina, Trump has consistently held a small lead over Biden for months. According to a recent East Carolina University poll, Trump was leading Biden 48 to 43% among registered voters. The survey was conducted from May 31 to June 3, following Trump’s conviction of felony crimes in New York.
Despite a drop in fundraising for the Trump campaign, some Republicans believe it does not indicate a lack of enthusiasm among suburban voters for the former president or a shift towards the Democratic party based on social issues. Jonathan Felts, a veteran North Carolina Republican consultant, emphasized that economic and security issues play a significant role for suburban voters.
While the state is seen as winnable by the Biden campaign, they are actively campaigning in North Carolina, with frequent visits by President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. The campaign is focused on driving up suburban turnout in battleground states like Wisconsin.
On the fundraising front, Trump’s campaign has seen a sharp drop in suburbs outside major cities in Wisconsin. The donations to the Trump campaign in key suburban areas have decreased compared to the 2016 cycle, while Biden has outraised Trump overall in this election cycle.
Mixed signs in Arizona suburbs
Arizona, a battleground state, has seen Trump’s support wavering in the suburbs, although he received more contributions than the Biden campaign. Trump’s success with suburban donors in the state, especially in the Phoenix area, has been notable.
Concerns over immigration, the economy, and crime in Arizona have made it a target for the Trump campaign, despite Biden’s narrow victory in 2020. While contributions to Trump have increased in certain suburbs near Phoenix, there has been a decline in other suburban areas, reflecting demographic shifts favoring Democrats in the state.
The abortion debate in Arizona could further challenge Trump’s support in the state, as his position on abortion restrictions may not align with the majority of adults in Arizona. This could impact support from suburban moderates in particular, potentially benefiting Biden in the fall.
The changing political landscape in suburban areas of Phoenix, where Republicans are losing ground, poses a concern for the GOP in Arizona. The trend of Democrats becoming more visible in suburban counties indicates a shift in voter preferences that may impact fundraising efforts.
Overall, the fundraising data suggests a change in dynamics in suburban areas of battleground states like North Carolina and Arizona, where demographic shifts and evolving political issues could influence the upcoming election.
Additional reporting by Elena Cox, senior data reporter at Stacker; additional data analysis by Emma Rubin, data editor at Stacker.
