HELENA — Montana leaders are warning the state could be facing “widespread drought” by the end of this month.
The Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation released its annual drought outlook this week.
The report indicates that much of the state had minimal snowfall at the beginning of January, and despite above-average precipitation in early March, it was not sufficient to offset the low snowpack. Although there was an improvement in the situation due to cooler temperatures and above-average precipitation in May, June, which is typically the wettest month in Montana, was drier than average.
According to the report, if there is no significant precipitation in the next 4 to 6 weeks, the June deficits could lead to widespread drought. The report also mentions that recent years have seen drier Julys, so if this trend continues this year, it could have severe consequences.
The report states that approximately 40% of the state is currently experiencing moderate to severe drought, especially in western Montana, while over 50% is classified as abnormally dry. The National Weather Service’s three-month outlook predicts above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for Montana.
While the chance of significant wildfires is currently normal, the report suggests that continued dryness through the summer and early fall months could extend the fire season.
Although the Vegetative Health Index in Montana is worse than last year at this time, it is still better than the three previous years. Streamflows have remained stable, but could decline rapidly without average or above average precipitation in the next month. Soil moisture is generally better than in recent years, but is starting to diminish.
The report concludes that based on current drought indicators, the outlook for the rest of the summer and early fall is negative. Conditions could deteriorate rapidly if there are significantly above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the coming weeks and months.
