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Eight of the best sluggers in the MLB will step into the batter’s box Monday night in the 2024 Home Run Derby at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Below are our 2024 Home Run Derby predictions using odds from BetMGM, Caesars and more:
2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds, preview & picks: Pete Alonso HR Derby odds & more
The league’s top two home run hitters (Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) both declined to participate so as it stands, two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso is the betting favorite.
Gunnar Henderson ranks third in home runs and holds the high mark amongst all participants. Here are the odds (as of Sunday 7/14 at BetMGM):
The Home Run Derby is coming with a new look this year.
The first round will no longer be part of a single-elimination bracket. Instead, the field will be cut in half with the four players who hit the most home runs in the allotted time advancing to the semifinal. The tiebreaker (if needed) will be settled by the distance of the farthest home run.
The bracket will return after the first round, with matchups being No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 to determine the championship.
Batters will also have a maximum number of pitches they’re allowed to hit, eliminating the extra wiggle room past participants gained if their pitcher threw faster than their competitors.
The first round and the semifinal will both be capped at 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. The final round will be 2 minutes or 27 pitches not counting the bonus period.
Bonus pitches are also different in 2024. Rather than providing an additional 30 seconds to batters, they are untimed and will last until the batter records three outs. Batters can also gain an extra out by hitting a home run of at least 425 feet during their bonus pitches.
Henderson has had an unbelievable year and is third in homers and fourth in OPS. At just 23, he is poised to be one of the most dangerous power hitters for the next decade.
Henderson might not be the same size as some of his competitors, but he’s still an athletic 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. His youth will also work to his benefit as he should attack the derby the same way his teammate, Adely Rutschmann, did a year ago.
Alonso and Garcia, the two favorites, aren’t hitting the ball very well this year. Ozuna is, but he hasn’t been known as an elite home run hitter over the course of his career.
Ramirez might not be Barry Bonds (even though he claimed he was better than him), but he’s a consistent batter with a knockout punch. He’s tied for fifth in the MLB with 23 home runs and should benefit from some of the rule changes.
Ramirez is only 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, which is why the new pitch limit will help him. Otherwise, his lack of speed and stamina would hamper him compared to his more athletic competitors.
This is a long shot, but Ramirez’s consistency (evidenced by his .272 batting average) gives him a higher floor than other members of the field.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, and appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant’s work here or by checking out his YouTube channel “The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”
