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Eight of the best sluggers in the MLB will participate in the 2024 Home Run Derby at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas on Monday night.
Below are predictions for the 2024 Home Run Derby using odds from BetMGM, Caesars, and other sources:
2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds, preview & picks: Pete Alonso HR Derby odds & more
The top two home run hitters, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, have declined to participate, making two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso the current favorite.
Gunnar Henderson, ranking third in home runs, has the highest count among all participants. Here are the odds (as of Sunday 7/14 at BetMGM):
The Home Run Derby will feature a new format this year.
The first round will not be part of a single-elimination bracket. Instead, the top four players with the most home runs will advance to the semifinals. The tiebreaker, if needed, will be determined by the distance of the farthest home run.
The bracket will be reintroduced after the first round, with matchups between No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 to determine the champion.
Batters will have a maximum number of pitches they can hit, eliminating the advantage past participants had if their pitcher threw faster than their competitors.
The first round and the semifinal will both be capped at 3 minutes or 40 pitches, whichever comes first. The final round will be 2 minutes or 27 pitches, not including the bonus period.
Bonus pitches will be different in 2024. Instead of adding an extra 30 seconds, they will be untimed and last until the batter records three outs. Batters can also earn an extra out by hitting a home run of at least 425 feet during their bonus pitches.
Henderson has had an outstanding year, ranking third in homers and fourth in OPS. At just 23 years old, he is expected to be one of the most potent power hitters in the next decade.
Although Henderson may not have the same size as some of his competitors, his athleticism at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds stands out. His youth will work in his favor as he approaches the derby similarly to his teammate, Adely Rutschmann, from a year ago.
Alonso and Garcia, the top favorites, are not performing well this year. Ozuna, on the other hand, is hitting well, but he hasn’t been recognized as an elite home run hitter throughout his career.
Ramirez, while not comparable to Barry Bonds (despite his claims), is a consistent batter with a powerful swing. Tied for fifth in the MLB with 23 home runs, he should benefit from the rule adjustments.
Ramirez, standing at 5-foot-9, 190 pounds, will benefit from the new pitch limit. Otherwise, his lack of speed and stamina could hinder him compared to his more athletic competitors.
While Ramirez is a long shot, his consistency illustrated by his .272 batting average gives him a more stable foundation than other participants.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to renowned publications like Forbes and appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can follow Grant’s work here or check out his YouTube channel “The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”
