For decades, New York has been predominantly blue – with blue governors, blue legislature, blue presidential votes, and a largely blue congressional delegation.
However, a shift in the congressional delegation post the 2022 elections has sparked a reevaluation of the political landscape in the Empire State for the upcoming 2024 elections, especially in the suburbs of New York City.
Republicans managed to retain two seats and flip two districts on Long Island in 2022, gaining complete control of the island. One member, George Santos, was eventually expelled from Congress and replaced by a Democrat.
The counties in these districts have 125,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
“The outcome of the House races on Long Island will determine the control of the chamber,” stated former Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan.
Additionally, Republican Mike Lawler defeated the 10-term incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney after redistricting in another New York City suburb.
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These victories contributed to Republicans securing the majority in the House.
Lafazan, a Democrat who represented a Republican district as a local legislator in Nassau County for over a decade, remarked that the voters in the area are independent and moderate in localizing their concerns, willing to split their ticket to support a candidate.
Both Lafazan and Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito acknowledge that their constituents are greatly impacted by events in New York City.
“My district specifically likely has the highest number of law enforcement officers and firefighters who commute to the city daily, risking their lives. You also have individuals traveling to the city for finance and education purposes,” D’Esposito stated.
D’Esposito highlighted that his constituents are dissatisfied with Democratic policies on criminal justice and immigration, sentiments echoed by some Democratic voters interviewed by Scripps News.
“Issues like illegal immigration have certainly influenced the shift. Policy changes like bail reform have contributed to a slight shift in our demographics,” said Neal Monteko.
Monteko and his wife Debra, both Democrats, expressed a hope for President Biden to step aside, but indicated they would support him if he doesn’t.
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“I don’t believe Biden will heavily influence down-ballot elections. People will likely vote locally for candidates they trust,” added Mrs. Monteko.
“There is a mix of emotions, and no uniform agreement here on Long Island regarding the way forward,” Lafazan remarked.
Some, including House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, believe Trump has a chance of winning the state in the November elections.
“It’s going to be a tough battle,” D’Esposito commented, foreseeing a challenging year for Democrats in terms of voter turnout. “I anticipate a decrease in historically high Democratic turnout.”
The closer governor’s race in 2022 and the congressional shifts are instilling hope among Republicans that the blue stronghold in the state is diminishing.
Despite the current momentum in the Republican party, D’Esposito emphasized the need for caution and not getting overly comfortable.
“We’re only at halftime, and the score isn’t significant. What matters is the outcome on election night – at least in New York – at 9 p.m.,” D’Esposito concluded.
