In North Carolina, Trump has maintained a small lead over Biden in most polls for months. A recent East Carolina University poll showed Trump leading Biden 48 to 43% among registered voters. This survey took place from May 31 to June 3, following Trump’s felony convictions in New York.
Despite a drop in fundraising, some Republicans believe that suburban voters are still enthusiastic about Trump and that social issues are not necessarily pushing them away from the GOP.
According to Jonathan Felts, a North Carolina Republican consultant, these voters are more concerned with economic and security issues than social issues.
The Biden campaign officials believe that they have a chance to win in North Carolina, citing frequent visits by President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to the state as evidence of their commitment to compete in November.
Democrats in North Carolina and other battleground states, such as Wisconsin, are focused on increasing suburban turnout. Fundraising data shows that Biden has been able to capitalize on Trump’s lack of support among moderate voters in these suburban areas.
Trump’s campaign fundraising has declined significantly in the suburbs outside major cities in Wisconsin, while Biden has outraised him in the current election cycle.
Support for Biden in suburban counties in Wisconsin helped him win the state in 2020, as demographics in these areas have shifted towards Democrats.
Arizona, a battleground state where Trump has a chance to gain support in the suburbs, has seen a decline in his fundraising totals compared to 2016.
Despite Biden’s narrow victory in Arizona in 2020, Trump received more contributions than Biden in the state through the first quarter of 2024. Trump has seen some success with suburban donors in Arizona, particularly in the Phoenix area.
However, fundraising data shows that Trump’s support has declined in some Phoenix suburbs and other suburban areas around the state. Demographic shifts in Arizona that favor Democrats could pose a challenge for Trump in the upcoming election.
Issues such as abortion in Arizona could further alienate suburban voters from Trump, as polls show a majority of adults oppose broad limits on abortion services. This could be a liability for Trump in a state where suburban voters are becoming less supportive of him.
Overall, fundraising challenges in suburbs across battleground states indicate a shift in support towards Democrats, as the GOP under Trump has shifted towards appealing to non-college, blue-collar voters.
Additional reporting by Elena Cox, senior data reporter at Stacker; additional data analysis by Emma Rubin, data editor at Stacker.
