Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the U.S. presidential race introduces more uncertainty into the global landscape at a time when Western leaders are dealing with conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, China’s increasing assertiveness in Asia, and the rise of far-right movements in Europe.
Throughout his five-decade political career, Biden forged strong personal relationships with various foreign leaders that potential successors on the Democratic ticket cannot replicate. Following his announcement, messages of support and appreciation for his service poured in from around the world.
The multitude of foreign policy challenges awaiting the next U.S. president underscores the global significance of decisions made in Washington. Here is a overview of some of these challenges.
ISRAEL
With Vice President Kamala Harris being considered as a potential replacement for Biden, Israelis are trying to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country, particularly as it faces growing global isolation over its military actions against Hamas.
Israel’s Haaretz newspaper analyzed Harris’ stance on Israel, noting her reputation as Biden’s “bad cop” who has publicly criticized Israel for its actions in Gaza. Harris has been more outspoken than Biden in calling for a cease-fire, condemning Israel’s invasion of Rafah, and expressing concern over civilian casualties in Gaza.
“With Biden stepping down, Israel may have lost one of its strongest supporters,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will change the dynamic.”
Biden’s unwavering support for Israel following Hamas’s October 7 attack stems from his decades-long backing of the country as a senator, vice president, and president. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked Biden for his consistent support of Israel over the years.
“Your steadfast support, especially during the conflict, has been invaluable,” Gallant wrote on the social media platform X.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Biden as a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples” and a “true ally of the Jewish people.” There was no immediate response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose cordial relations with Biden have been strained during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
UKRAINE
Any Democratic candidate is likely to continue Biden’s tradition of strong military support for Ukraine. However, there is growing frustration in Ukraine and Europe over the slow delivery of U.S. aid and restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
“Most Europeans understand that Ukraine will increasingly become their responsibility,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund. “Everyone is preparing for all possible scenarios.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed respect for Biden’s “difficult but brave decision” to withdraw from the race, thanking him for his assistance “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.”
Trump has pledged to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in a single day if elected, raising concerns in Ukraine that Russia could retain the territory it currently holds.
Russia, however, downplayed the significance of the race, asserting that regardless of the outcome, Moscow will continue its operations in Ukraine.
“That’s the end for Biden,” stated Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin. “The objectives of the special military operation will be achieved,” he added, referring to the war in Ukraine.
CHINA
In recent months, both Biden and Trump have sought to demonstrate to voters their ability to confront China’s growing military power and aggression, as well as protect American businesses and workers from cheap Chinese imports. Biden has increased tariffs on electric vehicles from China, while Trump has vowed to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese products.
Trump’s “America First” policy heightened tensions with Beijing, but disagreements with the strategic rival and economic giant persisted into Biden’s term.
China’s official response to the U.S. presidential election has been cautious.
“The U.S. elections are a domestic matter for the U.S. I have no comment on this,” stated Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
The Xinhua news agency downplayed the news of Biden’s decision, while the editor of the party-run Global Times newspaper, Hu Xijin, played down the impact of Biden’s withdrawal.
IRAN
With Iran’s proxies across the Middle East increasingly involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the U.S. faces a region in turmoil.
Yemeni Iran-backed Houthis attacked Tel Aviv for the first time last week, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes in war-torn Yemen. Escalating tensions and cross-border clashes between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group and the Israeli military have raised fears of a wider regional conflict.
Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, continues to battle Israel even after nine months of conflict that has resulted in 38,000 Palestinian deaths and displaced over 80% of Gaza’s population.
The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to unprecedented levels of 60%, nearing weapons-grade levels.
After Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, Biden expressed a desire to reverse his predecessor’s aggressive stance towards Iran. However, the Biden administration has maintained strict economic sanctions against Iran and unsuccessful negotiations to revive the agreement.
The unexpected death of Ebrahim Raisi, the Supreme Leader’s hard-line protege, in a helicopter crash led to the rise of a new reformist president in Iran, presenting new opportunities and challenges. Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed a desire to promote openness to the world while also maintaining a firm stance against the U.S.
EUROPE AND NATO
Many Europeans welcomed the departure of Trump after years of disparaging the European Union and undermining NATO. Trump’s apparent disregard for European allies during last month’s presidential debate did little to alleviate these concerns.
In contrast, Biden has advocated for strong American ties with European leaders.
This closeness was evident following Biden’s decision to exit the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described his decision as “perhaps the most challenging one in your life.” Newly appointed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that he respected Biden’s decision based on what he believed was in the best interests of the American people.
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris also expressed affection for Biden, calling him a “proud American with an Irish soul.”
The outcome of this presidential election will have a significant impact on whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and curbing the ambitions of authoritarian states, according to analysts.
“They do not want to see Donald Trump as president. Therefore, there is relief but also apprehension about Biden’s decision to withdraw, as in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are truly perplexed,” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
MEXICO
The relationship between Mexico and the U.S. has been characterized in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy, and climate change. Since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office in 2018, both countries have found common ground on migration, with Mexico tightening control over migrants crossing its territory to reach the U.S. border and the U.S. not pressing on other issues.
The López Obrador administration maintained this policy during Trump’s presidency and continued it into Biden’s term.
Last Friday, Mexico’s president referred to Trump as “a friend” and indicated that he would write to him to caution against closing the border or blaming migrants for drug trafficking into the United States.
“I will show him that migrants do not traffic drugs to the United States,” he stated, emphasizing that “closing the border will not solve anything, and in any case, it is not feasible.”
Associated Press writers Jill Lawless in London, Daria Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia, and Josh Goodman in Miami contributed to this report.
