President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race Sunday reset polling statistics and frontrunner theories.
Former President Donald Trump had been leading in most polls this year, but when Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the new candidate, the race took a different turn.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll now shows Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%. This shift came after she officially entered the race.
With new polling data coming in, political strategists and voters are assessing the current state of the 2024 presidential race.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, developed the “Keys to the White House” system which has accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections.
Despite calls for Biden to drop out after a shaky debate performance, Lichtman emphasized that Democrats needed him to stay in the race for a chance to win. With Biden stepping aside, Lichtman believes Democrats can still succeed by rallying around Harris as the likely nominee, keeping them down only three keys in his prediction system.
According to Lichtman’s model, other keys for a candidate to win include factors like the economy, policy changes, social unrest, and charisma. He believes Trump will struggle to surpass Harris as she has retained much of Biden’s campaign structure and support.
Lichtman will make his final prediction in August after the Democratic National Convention, as he’s waiting to evaluate the impact of social unrest on the election.
