President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race Sunday reset polling statistics and frontrunner theories.
Earlier this year, Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump had been ahead of President Biden in most polls. However, with the Democrat dropping out and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the new candidate, the landscape shifted.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll now shows Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%. They were neck and neck in the previous week’s poll before Harris officially joined the race.
As more polling data comes in, political analysts and voters are analyzing the new dynamics of the 2024 presidential race.
Renowned historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate election predictions through his “Keys to the White House” system, believes the Democrats still have a strong chance, despite Biden’s exit.
Although losing the incumbency key, Lichtman thinks Democrats will fare well by rallying around Harris as their likely nominee, safeguarding the contest key.
According to Lichtman, Democrats now only lack three keys for victory: party mandate, incumbency, and incumbent charisma. He assesses that the path to victory for Democrats remains viable.
Lichtman emphasizes that for an incumbent to be discounted, they would need to lose six keys in total.
He highlights the significant factors that contribute to a candidate’s success in his predictive model, emphasizing the crucial role of the incumbent’s actions.
Lichtman predicts challenges for Trump in surpassing Harris, considering her retention of Biden’s campaign structure and support.
His final election forecast will be revealed in August after the Democratic National Convention, as he awaits further developments on certain key factors.
