ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. — Sports books say they expect strong betting interest in this year’s Olympics, driven by dominant U.S. basketball and soccer teams.
But that very dominance is making it hard to make some bets on those teams without risking far more than you might win on them.
“We expect this to be the most bet-on Olympics in the history of legal sports betting,” said John Ewing, a spokesman for BetMGM Sportsbook, the official odds provider for The Associated Press.
There are several reasons for the anticipated surge in wagering on this year’s Olympics.
The first is the fact that more states than ever now offer legal sports betting in the U.S., currently 38 plus Washington, D.C. Three years ago, for the COVID-delayed Tokyo Olympics, only 22 states offered legal betting.
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Joe Maloney, a spokesman for the American Gaming Association, noted that three years ago, 97 million Americans, or about 40% of the adult population, could legally bet on the Olympics in their home state. That total is now 164 million, or 67% of the adult population.
He said 16 states have added legal sports betting since the Tokyo Olympics ended: Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin and West Virginia.
Geography should also help this year. Paris is six hours ahead of New York, enabling U.S. customers to follow, watch, and bet on events more easily than in 2021, when Tokyo was 13 hours ahead of New York, and many events were taking place in the middle of the night or very early morning for U.S. customers.
And lastly, the U.S. is expected to dominate the Games, in terms of overall medals won, and the most gold medals. The U.S. men’s and women’s basketball teams are prohibitive favorites once again to win gold, and the U.S. women’s soccer team enters play as the favorite as well.
The men’s basketball team includes many of the biggest stars in the world, including LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, and Stephen Curry. They were listed at -650 favorites Thursday, meaning a person would have to bet $650 of their own money to win $100 on the men’s team bringing home the gold medal.
And the women’s team is an even larger favorite. The squad that includes Britney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and Diana Taurasi is a -1400 favorite, meaning you’d have to put up $1,400 of your own money just to win $100 on the women’s team to win gold.
Of course, you can use a point spread on individual games to seek a more reasonable return on a bet, but even then, you’re paying a high price for the expected dominance of the U.S. squads. The men’s team is favored by 12.5 points in its opening game against Serbia, meaning the U.S. has to win by at least 13 for your bet to be a winner. The women’s team is favored by 20.5 in its opener against Japan.
Tim Whitehead, the head of sports book at BetRivers, noted that the U.S. men’s team was a massive favorite in a pre-Olympics warm-up game — and won by a single point.
“Despite the Team USA men being heavy favorites, we expect a competitive tournament,” he said. “If their performance against South Sudan as a 43.5-point favorite was any indication, perhaps it will be closer than the oddsmakers are predicting.”
The over/under for total gold medals won by the U.S. was 40.5 as of Thursday. China is next at 34.5.
The U.S. is a -2500 favorite to win the most medals overall. The closest competitors in that market are China at +1000; Great Britain at +5000 and Japan at +6600.
Caesars Sportsbook oddsmaker Chris Pearce said the company expects to take eight to 10 times the total amount of bets that it did in 2021.
“We anticipate U.S. sports betting interest in the games to undoubtedly focus on the basketball court, where some of the NBA’s biggest stars are taking part,” he said. “It will be a big shock if either (men’s or women’s U.S. teams) were to lose, and our customers certainly see it that way with 95% of bets struck so far being placed on the U.S.”
He said track and field and swimming traditionally do well in drawing bets, adding he expects the handle, or total amount wagered on these sports “to skyrocket when compared to the past Olympics.”
But you can also bet on obscure sports like rock wall climbing, officially called speed climbing, and bet on whether Indonesia’s Desak Made Rita Kusuma Dewi will win the gold medal at +1600 odds.
Even break dancing is an Olympic event this time.
Kevin Hennessy, a spokesman for Fanatics Sportsbook, said his company’s most popular market in terms of bets is on who will win the 100-meter race. He added some states forbid betting on Olympic events that rely on judge’s scores, such as gymnastics.
