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Team USA’s quest for a Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics begins with a showdown against the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, and Serbia.
The Stars and Stripes beat Serbia 105-79 in a warmup match on July 17 as Stephen Curry led the way with 24 points while Jokic was held to 16 points and 11 rebounds on 6-for-19 shooting.
With the rematch and hunt for Olympic gold now here, read below for USA vs. Serbia predictions ahead of Sunday’s tip-off.
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Paris 2024 Olympic basketball USA vs. Serbia odds, preview & predictions
The Group C USA vs. Serbia match will take place on Sunday, July 28, at 11:15 a.m. ET. at Pierre Mauroy Stadium. It is one of three qualifying matches in the Group Stage, which will determine which teams advance to the elimination bracket.
Team USA enters the match as a 12.5-point favorite and is -900 on the moneyline. According to those odds, they have a 90% chance to win the matchup against Jokic and company.
The Red, White and Blue did not do a good job of covering the spread during the build-up to the Olympics. They covered against Serbia and Canada but found themselves on the losing end (from a betting perspective) against South Sudan, Australia and Germany.
Despite that, the Americans are a -400 favorite to win the gold medal at the Paris Olympics. Serbia is tied with the host nation France for the third-best odds at +1500, only trailing Canada (+1000).
The USA would steamroll every country in the world if the Olympics happened a year from now. However, that isn’t the case, and the short turnaround from being with their respective teams to learning how to play with other megastars has resulted in the team appearing stuck in the mud at different times.
The USA already covered this line in their previous match against Serbia, but that was an uncommon result compared to their other warmup matches. Serbia also possesses lots of quality and the best player in the world, Jokic, who will make life tough for the USA.
It’s possible the U.S. clicks into gear and blows every team off the court, but we’re expecting that to happen later in the tournament despite the increase in competition the deeper the tournament goes.
LeBron led the U.S. in scoring during its warmup games and came alive down the stretch in each of the last two, proving himself to still be the best and most influential American basketball player. If this game is as close as we expect it to be, there’s a strong chance LeBron ends up pulling the strings throughout the fourth quarter.
Team USA struggled on the boards in recent tournaments, which is why they addressed their lack of size with the inclusion of Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo. The three, along with the team’s forwards, should help hold Jokic under this line like they did during their recent meeting.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, and appeared on the VSiN TV network.
