MIAMI (AP) — A tropical depression has intensified into Tropical Storm Debby north of Cuba on Saturday and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico on a path towards the Florida coast.
The National Hurricane Center, in an update issued at 11 p.m. on Saturday, reported that Debby was positioned about 50 miles (80 kilometers) west-southwest of Dry Tortugas National Park in Florida and about 260 miles (415 kilometers) south-southwest of Tampa. The storm was moving northwest at 14 mph (22 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph).
Wind and thunderstorms have extended over a wide area encompassing southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas. Portions of the state’s coast are under a hurricane warning with tropical storm warnings for the Florida Keys.
Debby is expected to bring heavy rain and coastal flooding to much of Florida’s Gulf Coast by Sunday night, with predictions indicating the system could make landfall as a hurricane on Monday and then move across northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.
Meteorologists caution that Debby could also result in heavy rainfall over north Florida and the Atlantic coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina early next week.
Debby is the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season following Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl, and Tropical Storm Chris, all of which formed in June.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has forecasted that the system will intensify as it veers off the southwest Florida coast, where the sea temperatures are exceptionally warm. Strengthening is anticipated to accelerate later on Sunday.
A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Big Bend and the Florida Panhandle, with tropical storm warnings in place for Florida’s West Coast, the southern Florida Keys, and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch extends further west into the Panhandle. A warning indicates that storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, while a watch means they are possible within 48 hours.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can trigger river flooding, overwhelm drainage systems and canals. Forecasters have warned of 6 to 12 inches (150mm to 300 mm) of rain, with up to 18 inches (450 mm) in isolated areas, which could lead to “locally significant” flash and urban flooding. Forecasters have also cautioned about moderate flooding for certain rivers along Florida’s West Coast.
Heaviest rain may impact Georgia, South Carolina
Some of the heaviest downpours are expected to occur along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, through coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina next week. The storm is predicted to slow down after landfall.
“We could see a stall or a meandering motion along coastal parts of the southeastern United States,” said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan during a Saturday briefing. “This will not only increase the risk of rainfall but also the potential for storm surge and strong winds.”
Given Florida’s flat terrain, flooding is a common concern even on dry days. The storm is projected to bring a surge of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) along most of the Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, with a storm tide of up to 7 feet (2.1 meters) north of there in the sparsely inhabited Big Bend area.
Officials have warned of “a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation” in regions such as Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatchee, and Cedar Key. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in Citrus and Levy counties, while voluntary evacuations were recommended in Hernando, Manatee, Pasco, and Taylor counties. Shelters have been opened in these and other counties.
Citrus County Sheriff Mike Prendergast estimated that 21,000 people reside in the evacuation zone of his county. Prendergast recalled having to rescue 73 individuals from storm surge flooding during Hurricane Idalia last year, and stated his hope to avoid a similar situation with Debby.
“After the storm surge occurs, we simply do not have enough first responders in our agency and among other first responders in the county to assist everyone who might need help,” he explained.
Preparations for flooding underway
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 61 of Florida’s 67 counties, with the National Guard mobilizing 3,000 guard members. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has also issued an emergency proclamation.
The White House reported that federal and Florida officials are in communication, and FEMA has “pre-positioned” resources such as water and food.
In Tampa, over 30,000 sandbags have been distributed to combat potential flooding.
“Our stormwater drains are cleared out. Our generators are checked and fueled. We are doing everything necessary to be prepared to face a tropical storm,” said Tampa Mayor Jane Castor.
Christina Lothrop, the general manager at Blue Pelican Marina in Hernando Beach, approximately 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of St. Petersburg, described a busy scene at the public ramp on Saturday as people launched boats.
“Today seems normal, which is a bit strange,” Lothrop told The Associated Press over the phone.
However, workers at her marina have been preparing since Tuesday, securing boats stored on racks, stowing toolboxes, and securing everything in place.
“Currently, our focus is on securing the boats,” Lothrop mentioned.
Prior to closing on Saturday, Lothrop planned to elevate computers off the ground, put up sandbags, and reinforce doors. During Idalia, about a foot of water (30 centimeters) flooded the shop.
Betti Silverman, whose home in Crystal River was under an evacuation order, expressed doubts about her family leaving on Saturday afternoon. While her waterfront home flooded during Idalia as her family was moving in, ruining boxes and furniture in the garage, Silverman felt that the forecast for Debby was not as severe.
“We have lived in Florida our whole lives — in South Florida — so hurricanes are not a major concern,” Silverman stated.
On Friday, crews took floating cranes away from a bridge construction project across Tampa Bay and anchored them together, alongside laying down cranes on land in a horizontal position, as reported by the Tampa Bay Times. A $5 million beach renourishment project in Pinellas County was put on hold due to erosion caused by past storms.
For some, the name Debby evokes memories of a 2012 tropical storm with the same name that resulted in $250 million in damages and eight fatalities, including seven in Florida. That storm brought heavy rains, including an incredible 29 inches (730 mm) south of Tallahassee.
More storms in the Pacific, but no threat to land
Meanwhile, over 750 miles (1,200 kilometers) off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Carlotta has weakened with sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph) and is likely to diminish into a remnant of thunderstorms.
Further west, Tropical Storm Daniel has formed in the Pacific, over 1,500 miles (2,400 km) from the southern tip of Baja California, and is also expected to dissipate without making landfall.
