USA vs. Brazil basketball: Olympic quarterfinal odds & picks

Team USA’s quest for a Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics continues with a quarterfinal matchup against Brazil on Tuesday afternoon.

The Stars and Stripes were a perfect 3-0 in the group stage with wins over Serbia, South Sudan and Puerto Rico. They’ve held strong at around -550 favorites to win gold ahead of Canada, Germany and the rest of the field.

Below is a preview for the quarterfinal matchup and our favorite USA vs. Brazil basketball props:

Team USA will battle Brazil on Tuesday, Aug. 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers listed the Americans as a 27-point favorite with a points total of 185.5, per Caesars Sportsbook.

The Red, White and Blue arrived in the knockout bracket as the champions of Group C. They, along with Canada and Germany, are the only countries to avoid defeat, and their point differential of +64 is 17 points clear of the next-closest team (Germany).

Brazil, on the other hand, is only 1-2 with losses to Germany and France and an 18-point win against Japan. They also have the worst Gold Medal odds of every team remaining at +50000, more than three times longer than the next-lowest team, Greece, at +15000.

The USA is only 1-2 against the spread at the Olympics and is having some issues living up to pre-tournament expectations. Brazil, however, is also just 1-2 against the spread with its only cover coming in its win against Japan.

The USA appears to be the best team at the Olympics and is still our pick to win the Gold Medal. That said, they have not demonstrated an ability to consistently blow teams out and often look disjointed or uncomfortable with certain lineups on the floor, not to mention that some of their best players haven’t been at the top of their games.

Team USA is only 1-4 against the spread across its three Olympic and final two warm up games. The lone cover was against Serbia, who it also covered against in an early warmup match, while they missed the mark against Germany, South Sudan (twice) and Puerto Rico, meaning the caliber of the opponent seems to have no impact on their ability to cover.

Brazil should approach Tuesday knowing it is at a talent deficit and with the goal of muddying up the game as much as possible. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the USA win by a large margin, but we wouldn’t bet them on this line.

Anthony Edwards props USA vs. Brazil: Over 13.5 points (-106 or better)

Edwards was excellent in the USA’s last game against Puerto Rico, putting up 26 points in 17 minutes on 73.3% shooting. He hit double-digit points in all of the team’s Olympic games and was one of the best players during the warmup matches, and his youthfulness should keep him on the court in the event of a blowout win.

USA vs. Brazil basketball props: Joel Embiid under 5.5 rebounds (-160 or better)

Embiid recorded two rebounds against Serbia, did not play against South Sudan, and then had three against Puerto Rico. There’s no guarantee he starts or even plays in this game, given Steve Kerr’s willingness to tinker with his lineup, and Embiid hasn’t been active on the boards regardless. Take him to go under this and alternate lines.

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