406 MT Sports panel favors Bobcats over New Mexico

Oh sure, government officials get their share of television time and ink — especially during an election year. We’ve all heard more than our share of snotty advertisements about this guy being shady and that guy being bad for the border and … apparently the golden rule is as dead as Julius Caesar.

Ah well. Who else besides UM and MSU quarterbacks would you even want to watch for three or four hours a week for roughly four months each year? Anything else seems like a slow form of torture. 

Knowing how much the quarterback means to a football team, I’m inclined to disagree with the STATS Football Championship Subdivision preseason rankings. Specifically, the part where Montana is ranked No. 3 and Montana State No. 4.

That may not get me invited to the Grizzlies’ team dinner a week from Friday, but so be it. I despise getting dressed up for those things anyway. Knit shirts are itchy.

Montana State will have talented Tommy Mellott under center when it makes its season debut Saturday at New Mexico. The Pride of Butte is smart, elusive and has a ton of big-game experience.

Montana lost its starting quarterback from last year, Clifton McDowell. You know, the multi-talented guy that should have ran the ball up the gut on that critical 4th-and-goal play from the 1-yard line late in the first quarter against South Dakota State in the FCS title tilt last January.

If McDowell’s number is called instead of running back Eli Gillman, who ran parallel to the line of scrimmage for a while before trying to push ahead and getting tackled inches from paydirt, things might have been different in Texas.

I really believe that play was most critical. If the Griz get seven there instead of zilch, maybe the second and third quarters play out differently and we’re calling UM defending national champs right now.

Amazingly, McDowell is on his seventh college in four seasons. First there was Louisiana Lafayette, then Kilgore College and Central Arkansas. He committed to Southern but flipped to the Griz in May of 2023. Last February, he committed to play football at FBS Temple but something happened there and now he’s at McNeese State, who went 1-10 last season.

Montana will have a new quarterback for its home debut on Aug. 31 and that individual, unlike Montana State’s field general, has a lot to prove. Whether it’s the junior transfer from Fresno State (Logan Fife) or redshirt freshman Keali’i Ah Yat, the Grizzlies are going to be relying on someone yet to show what he can do when the opponent and crowd are bearing down late in a tight game.

Therefore, I see the Bobcats as the team deserving of a No. 3 ranking — or perhaps even No. 2 — behind defending national champion South Dakota State. The Grizzlies have had to replace a lot of their defense along with their quarterback and some offensive linemen and they’re my No. 4, at least for today. Ask me again after next weekend and I may have a different answer.

In the end, you can take national rankings in one hand and my dog’s daily walk deposit in the other and they weigh the same. It’s what happens on the field, starting with Saturday’s debut for the Cats, that really matters.

This year, 406 MT Sports has expanded its panel of Big Sky Conference game prognosticators. Joining the Missoulian’s Bill Speltz and Frank Gogola is 406 MT Sports Montana State beat writer Victor Flores of Bozeman. The plan is for better balance and more fun.

Speltz is defending picks champion. Gogola won the year before.

Here’s a look at Saturday’s opener for MSU and our first 406 MT Sports picks game of the season:

Montana State (8-4 last year) at New Mexico (4-8 last year), 2 p.m., FS1: Albuquerque can be quite warm in August. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 90s for Saturday’s game. That might just help the home team in what shapes up as a close game. The Cats have the most established quarterback in Mellott. The Lobos of the Mountain West Conference lost their starting QB from last season, Dylan Hopkins, and sophomore Devon Dampier is listed No. 1 on the current depth chart. The 5-foot-10 sophomore saw action in nine games last season, starting one. Quite a bit different than Mellott, who two years ago led the Cats to the FCS title game. New Mexico drew 17,279 for its home opener last season, which saw the team whip Tennessee Tech, 56-10. The Lobos will likely draw a similar crowd Saturday but it won’t be enough against an MSU team that’s going to challenge for a national championship. Bill: Bobcats 27, Lobos  24. Victor: Montana State 35, New Mexico 20. Frank: MSU 31, New Mexico 23.