U.S. and Arab mediators are nearing a deal to stop the conflict in Gaza and release hostages taken by Hamas in their attack on Oct. 7. However, the negotiations have been ongoing for months, with moments of false hope.
The situation became more urgent when Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah promised retaliation for the killing of two top militants, allegedly by Israel, leading to concerns of a larger, more devastating war.
Following two days of talks in Qatar last week, U.S. and Israeli officials cautiously expressed optimism after a bridging proposal was presented by mediators. However, Hamas has not been as positive, noting that the latest proposal differs from previous versions that it had largely agreed to.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is returning to the region to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. A delegation from Israel was sent to Cairo on Sunday, and another round of high-level talks with Israel is expected to take place in Egypt later this week.
Here are the current developments:
What’s at stake in the cease-fire negotiations?
A cease-fire would bring an end to the deadliest conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, which has had a destabilizing effect on the Middle East and sparked global protests.
Israel’s offensive has resulted in the death of over 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials. The majority of the population has been displaced, living in overcrowded tent camps. The health sector is in crisis, and entire neighborhoods have been destroyed.
The Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 led to the deaths of around 1,200 people, most of whom were civilians. Approximately 250 hostages were taken, with around 110 still being held in Gaza. Over 100 hostages were released during a temporary cease-fire in November.
Hezbollah, in Lebanon, has been launching drones and rockets into Israel on a frequent basis since the conflict began, resulting in Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire in response. This escalating violence has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah has threatened a stronger attack in response to the killing of one of its key commanders, Fouad Shukur, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut. Other Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have also targeted Israeli, U.S., and international interests in solidarity with the Palestinians.
A cease-fire agreement could potentially prevent Hezbollah and Iran from launching retaliatory strikes on Israel, at least temporarily, to avoid being seen as spoilers.
What are the main sticking points?
The negotiations are based on a three-phase proposal in which Hamas would release all hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a lasting cease-fire.
President Joe Biden supported this proposal in a speech on May 31, and it was subsequently approved by the U.N. Security Council. However, Hamas has suggested “amendments” to the proposal, while Israel has requested “clarifications,” with each side accusing the other of introducing new demands.
Hamas wants assurances that Israel will not resume hostilities after the initial release of around 30 vulnerable hostages. Israel seeks to avoid lengthy negotiations in the second phase when the remaining hostages, including male soldiers, are supposed to be freed.
In recent weeks, Netanyahu has insisted on maintaining a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent arms smuggling and along a line dividing the territory to monitor Palestinians returning to the north and prevent militants from infiltrating.
Israel maintains that these demands are not new, but they were not mentioned in Biden’s speech or the U.N. resolution, which called for a complete withdrawal. Other unresolved issues include the identities of the Palestinian prisoners to be released and whether they will be exiled.
Who decides on the cease-fire?
Any agreement would require the approval of Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, who played a key role in the Oct. 7 attack and is now the overall leader of Hamas following the death of Haniyeh.
Netanyahu faces pressure from hostage families and much of the Israeli public to secure a deal. However, far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to bring down the government if he makes significant concessions, potentially leading to early elections and his removal from office.
Sinwar is currently in hiding in Gaza, likely within Hamas’ tunnel network, and has maintained a tough stance throughout the negotiations. As a top target on Israel’s most-wanted list, his potential death raises questions about the future of the talks.
Historically, Hamas negotiators have taken several days to relay proposals to Sinwar and receive his feedback. Therefore, even after finalizing the latest proposal, it may take a week or more for Hamas to officially respond.
Palestinians in Gaza are exhausted and desperate for a cease-fire. Previous celebrations following Hamas’ acceptance of a proposal in May quickly turned to disappointment.
Humanitarian organizations have called for a cease-fire since the conflict began to ensure the delivery of essential aid to Gaza. Experts warn of famine and disease outbreaks like polio if the war continues. Rebuilding Gaza would take more than a decade and billions of dollars, according to the U.N., even if the fighting ends soon.
In Israel, there is widespread support for the war and little sympathy for the Palestinians, largely due to the trauma of the Oct. 7 attack. However, the plight of the hostages has sparked mass protests demanding their release and an end to Netanyahu’s government, which is accused of security and intelligence failures leading to the attack.
Stay updated with AP’s coverage of the conflict at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war
