The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is just a few weeks away and forecasters say conditions are looking favorable for the development of tropical systems.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, forecasters say there is a higher than 60% chance of a storm developing in the open Atlantic Ocean between August 28 and September 3. Forecasters also believe there is a better than 40% chance of a storm developing in the region from September 4-10.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data shows that ocean temperatures over most of the Atlantic are well above average. The only exception is in a path from Puerto Rico to Bermuda after Hurricane Ernesto passed through the region and caused some upwelling of cooler water currents.
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“Combined with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, and the approaching climatological peak of hurricane season, this favors high chances for tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Main Development Region despite the suppressed convective pattern aloft,” the Climate Prediction Center said.
To date, there have been five tropical storms, with three becoming hurricanes. Hurricane Beryl is the only major hurricane so far this year, becoming the earliest-forming Category 5 in the Atlantic on record.
NOAA released updated projections this month, as the agency expects a more active than usual season. NOAA forecasts there will be 17-24 named tropical storms, with 8-13 of them becoming hurricanes in 2024.
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“Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said earlier this month. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Nina is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”
Hurricane season typically peaks on September 10.
