After completing military exercises in Cuba in June, Russian warships did not all return home. Some have now arrived at their next destination in Venezuela, along the northern coast of South America.
“The Kremlin has a fondness for their authoritarian allies, so this group will also travel to Venezuela to meet with Nicolas Maduro’s forces,” said Andrew D’Anieri from the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council.
Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, has been in power since 2013 and is considered a dictator. He is an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, so it is not surprising that Russian warships are heading to Venezuela, especially with new elections approaching.
“Russian warships have the potential to cause trouble. They will be in the region until Venezuela’s controversial elections on July 28, so they may play a role in supporting the Maduro regime,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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The Venezuelan elections are overshadowed by dire economic conditions in the country, exacerbated by government policies and U.S. sanctions. This has led to a record number of Venezuelan migrants heading to the U.S.-Mexico border in recent years.
About half of all Venezuelans in the U.S. now reside in Florida.
“I will be closely monitoring whether Russian military officers participate in upcoming Venezuelan exercises against Guyana,” Berg said. “This would be a clear endorsement of Venezuela’s claim on the Essequibo region.”
The Essequibo region, located near Venezuela, is rich in oil and is part of Guyana.
President Maduro has threatened to annex the region by force, similar to Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, according to D’Anieri.
“Maduro would welcome explicit support, especially from Putin, for what the rest of the world sees as an illegitimate land-grab,” D’Anieri added. “But that is the nature of the game for Putin and his allies.”
The duration of the Russian warships’ stay in Venezuela is unclear. Depending on the election results, experts warn that more Venezuelans may leave the country. Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have emigrated since 2015, representing a quarter of the population and the largest refugee exodus in the Americas.
