For decades, New York has been identified as a Democratic stronghold – blue for governor, blue in the legislature, blue for the president, and predominantly blue in its congressional delegation.
However, a shift in the delegation post the 2022 election has sparked renewed interest in the Empire State for the 2024 elections, especially in the New York City suburbs.
Republicans managed to retain two seats and flip two districts on Long Island in 2022, securing complete control of the island. One member, George Santos, was eventually expelled from Congress and replaced by a Democrat.
The counties in those districts have a voter registration lean of 125,000 more Democrats than Republicans.
“The outcome of House races on Long Island will be pivotal in determining control of the chamber,” stated former Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan.
Additionally, Republican Mike Lawler defeated 10-term Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney following her redistricting in another New York City suburb.
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These victories contributed to Republicans securing a majority in the House.
Lafazan, a Democrat who served as a local legislator in Nassau County for over a decade, represented a Republican-dominated district.
“Voters here are known for their independent nature and moderate approach in addressing local issues, often crossing party lines to choose a candidate,” he explained.
Both he and Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito acknowledge the significant influence of events in New York City on their constituents.
“My district likely has the highest number of law enforcement and fire department personnel who commute to the city daily risking their lives. There are also individuals traveling into the city for finance and education,” stated D’Esposito.
D’Esposito highlighted the frustration among his constituents regarding Democratic policies on criminal justice and immigration, sentiments echoed by Democratic voters interviewed by Scripps News.
“Issues such as illegal immigration have indeed shifted the demographic balance significantly. Reforms like bail reform have collectively contributed to a slight conservative shift in our area,” explained Neal Monteko.
Monteko, along with his wife Debra, are Democrats hoping for a change in leadership. They remain open to voting for President Biden if necessary.
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Lafazan noted the diverse range of opinions among Long Island residents regarding the upcoming elections.
Some, including House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, believe Trump might have a chance at winning the state in November.
However, D’Esposito suggested that though challenging, it’s possible. He anticipates a decrease in Democratic turnout which could impact the overall outcome.
The competitive governor’s race in 2022 and the recent congressional flips have instilled hope among Republicans, signaling a potential shift in the traditionally blue state.
Despite the current momentum in his party’s favor, D’Esposito emphasized the need for vigilance and continued effort.
“We’re only halfway through; the score is insignificant. What truly matters is the result on election night in New York at 9 p.m.,” D’Esposito concluded.
