U.S. and Arab mediators indicate they are nearing a resolution to stop the conflict in Gaza and secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas in the October 7 attack. However, these negotiations have been ongoing for several months, marked by periods of false hope.
Heightening the urgency of the discussions, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have pledged to avenge the targeted killing of two prominent militants, purportedly at the hands of Israel, prompting concerns of a broader and more catastrophic war.
Following two days of talks in Qatar last week, U.S. and Israeli officials cautiously expressed optimism after mediators presented a bridging proposal. Despite this, Hamas has shown less enthusiasm, citing deviations from previous proposals they had previously accepted.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has returned to the region and is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. Additionally, Israel dispatched a delegation to Cairo on Sunday, with plans for further high-level discussions with Israel in Egypt later this week.
Here’s an update on the current situation:
What’s at stake in the cease-fire negotiations?
An agreement would bring an end to the deadliest conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, a conflict that has brought instability to the Middle East and sparked global protests.
According to local health authorities, Israel’s offensive has resulted in over 40,000 deaths in Gaza, with the majority being civilians. Many have been displaced multiple times, residing in overcrowded tent camps as essential services have collapsed, and entire neighborhoods have been ravaged.
The Oct. 7 attack by Hamas claimed approximately 1,200 lives, mostly civilians, and led to the kidnapping of around 250 hostages. Approximately 110 hostages remain in Gaza, with Israeli authorities reporting that about a third have died. Over 100 hostages were freed during a temporary cease-fire in November.
Hezbollah from Lebanon has constantly launched drones and rockets into Israel since the onset of the conflict, triggering Israeli airstrikes and artillery responses. The situation has escalated, forcing tens of thousands of individuals to flee their homes on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah has pledged a more severe retaliation in response to the death of Fouad Shukur, a top commander, in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut last month.
Other Iran-backed groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have carried out attacks on Israeli, U.S., and international targets in solidarity with the Palestinians. Iran and Israel engaged in direct clashes in April, heightening concerns of a repeat if Iran follows through on its promise to avenge the killing of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a Tehran explosion, attributed to Israel.
Hezbollah has indicated that it would cease operations along the border in case of Gaza calm. A cease-fire deal might also dissuade both Hezbollah and Iran from launching retaliatory assaults on Israel, at least temporarily, to avoid being perceived as spoilers.
What are the main points of contention?
The two parties have been operating based on a developing proposal for a three-phase process in which Hamas would release all hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners’ release, an Israeli pullout from Gaza, and a lasting truce.
President Joe Biden expressed support for the proposal in a speech on May 31, which was subsequently endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. However, Hamas has suggested “amendments” while Israel has requested “clarifications,” each side accusing the other of introducing unacceptable new demands.
Hamas seeks assurances that Israel will refrain from resuming hostilities after the initial release of around 30 of the most vulnerable hostages. Israel aims to prevent prolonged negotiations in the second phase, which involves freeing the remaining surviving hostages, including male soldiers.
Recently, Netanyahu demanded that Israel retains a military presence along the Gaza-Egypt border to deter arms smuggling and along a divide line in Gaza to monitor Palestinians returning to the north and prevent militant infiltration.
Israel refutes the claim that these demands are new, but they were not mentioned in Biden’s speech or the U.N. resolution, which focused on complete withdrawal. Other remaining issues include the selection of Palestinian prisoners for release and the possibility of their exile.
Who has the final say on the cease-fire?
Any agreement would need approval from Netanyahu and Yahya Sinwar, a key figure behind the October 7 attack who assumed leadership of Hamas after Haniyeh’s death.
Netanyahu faces significant pressure from hostage families and a large portion of the Israeli populace to secure their release through an agreement. However, far-right leaders in his coalition have threatened to destabilize the government if he compromises too extensively, potentially prompting early elections that could remove him from power.
Meanwhile, Sinwar remains in hiding in Gaza, likely deep within Hamas’ extensive tunnel network, and has maintained a hardline stance throughout the negotiations. He is also at the top of Israel’s most-wanted list, raising concerns about the potential consequences of his demise.
Historically, it has taken several days for Hamas negotiators to transmit proposals to Sinwar and receive his input. Therefore, even after finalizing the latest proposal, it could take a week or longer for Hamas to formally respond to it.
Gazans express exhaustion and urgency for a cease-fire. Spontaneous celebrations erupted when Hamas agreed to an earlier proposal in May, though these hopes were soon dashed.
Relief organizations have been advocating for a cease-fire from the war’s onset, emphasizing its necessity to ensure vital food and humanitarian aid can reach Gaza. Experts warn of a potential famine and the spread of diseases like polio if the conflict persists. Even in case of an immediate cessation of hostilities, the U.N. estimates that reconstruction in Gaza would require more than a decade and tens of billions of dollars.
In Israel, where many individuals are still haunted by the events of the October 7 attack, there is broad support for the war and limited sympathy for the Palestinians.
Nevertheless, the hostage situation has stirred mass protests demanding their release and the resignation of Netanyahu’s government, which many hold accountable for the security lapses enabling the attack.
Stay updated on AP’s coverage of the conflict at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war
