Japan’s ruling party started a leadership vote on Friday to determine the next prime minister. The front-runners include a seasoned defense expert and a nationalist who could become the nation’s first female leader.
A record nine candidates are competing after the powerful factions of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) dissolved earlier this year due to a funding scandal.
Since the LDP holds a parliamentary majority, the winner is guaranteed to become prime minister and will likely call for a snap election to solidify their mandate.
Surveys show a close race between former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, hawkish Sanae Takaichi – a notable woman in Japanese politics – and the young political heir Shinjiro Koizumi, who would be Japan’s youngest prime minister.
“This LDP election is the most unpredictable in many years,” said Jeffrey J. Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, told AFP.
The winner will need to address regional security challenges such as an assertive China, Russia’s deepening defense ties with China, and North Korea’s prohibited missile tests. They will also need to boost the economy as the central bank moves away from decades of monetary easing.
On the streets of Tokyo, 72-year-old retiree Yasumi Fujino expressed concern about China and hoped the next leader would focus on diplomacy. However, she disagreed with Takaichi’s close alignment with former Prime Minister Abe.
– ‘Fair and square’ Ishiba –
The LDP president serves for three years and can have up to three consecutive terms. Unpopular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election.
With the factions disbanded, it’s unlikely that any candidate will secure enough votes to win outright, making a runoff between the top two candidates necessary, with the winner announced on Friday afternoon.
Ishiba, 67, has previously come close to the top job and believes his experience in tackling social issues makes him qualified. He is known for his ‘fair and square’ attitude, which resonates with voters.
Economic Security Minister Takaichi, 63, holds strong nationalist views and is against changing laws to allow separate surnames for married couples. She holds a hardline stance towards China and is a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni war shrine.
Former environment minister Koizumi, 43, faces criticism for his lack of experience in leading the country but is seen as a symbol of rejuvenation for the LDP.
Other candidates include reformist Taro Kono, chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Takayuki Kobayashi, who is seen as a wildcard.
Despite the challenges ahead, the victor on Friday will be officially elected by parliament on October 1.
The LDP has been the dominant party in Japan for many years, with the main opposition parties struggling to provide viable alternatives.
Kishida’s term was marked by efforts to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities, improve relations with neighboring countries, and address economic challenges. However, his rule was marred by scandals, rising prices, and declining public approval ratings.
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