Like a clockwork Evel Knievel, Jon Tester winds up every six years to jump what always looks like it might be one bus too many.
His first two Senate victories, including the unseating of powerful Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, were won with less than half the popular vote. His third victory, with a 50.3% vote share over Matt Rosendale in 2018, was the fourth-smallest winning margin of the 33 U.S. Senate races that year.
In this year’s election, however, polls suggest the farmer and former music teacher turned state legislator might finally fall to the political gravity of an increasingly Republican electorate. In the past 12 years, Democrats have gone from holding six of Montana’s eight statewide offices to just one.
It’s been six years since a Democrat won a single statewide race in Montana. That winner was Tester.
Nine out of 10 polls tracked by 538 ABC News since July favor Republican Tim Sheehy, first-time candidate, combat veteran, wealthy business owner and relative Montana newcomer.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which publishes Sabato’s Crystal Ball, changed its assessment of the Montana race on Sept. 6 from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” based on the streak of polls showing Sheehy in the lead. Election oddsmakers at the Cook Political Report moved the race to “leans Republican” in mid-September.
To have a chance, Tester needs to share tens of thousands of voters with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, as he did with Mitt Romney in 2012, the last presidential election year in which Tester was on the ballot. Split tickets, meaning ballots with votes for candidates from more than one party, are increasingly rare.
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