Climate change impacts can sometimes be seen in unexpected places, such as the grocery store. Over the past four years, food prices have risen by 25 percent, surprising Americans with increasing costs of essentials like beef, sugar, and citrus.
While factors like supply chain disruptions and labor shortages have played a role in this price surge, a recent study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, as reported by Grist, points to extreme heat as a key driver of food price inflation. The analysis suggests that “heatflation” could lead to a 3 percentage point yearly increase in food prices globally in just over a decade, with North America experiencing a 2 percentage point increase. Additionally, extreme weather could contribute to a 0.3 to 1.2 percentage point rise in overall inflation annually based on carbon emissions.
Although these percentages may seem small, climate economist Gernot Wagner from Columbia Business School emphasizes that they are significant. He notes that this increase is half of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2 percent. With consumer prices already up by 3.2 percent over the past year, the impact of climate change on food prices is becoming more apparent.
The connection between heatwaves and rising food prices is clear: when crops suffer due to extreme heat, food prices rise. For example, a study revealed that Europe’s 2022 heatwaves and crop losses from soy, sunflower, and maize harvests contributed to a record-breaking 9.2 percent inflation that year.
Global food price inflation is expected to affect countries worldwide, including those in North Africa and the Middle East where temperature-sensitive crops are vulnerable. Despite the significant findings of the study, Wagner believes that future research may uncover even higher inflation projections.
The combination of climate change and rising prices, known as “climateflation,” poses a threat to food affordability in the future. The disruption caused by climate change is anticipated to surpass that of the pandemic and lead to widespread economic challenges.
As the world grapples with this new reality, terms like “heatflation” and “climateflation” have emerged to describe the impact of extreme weather events on food prices. While “heatflation” focuses on price effects from heat, it underscores the urgent need to address climate change impacts on food security.
The research underscores the significance of initiatives like President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to address the economic consequences of climate change. Despite criticisms of the act’s naming, it aligns with the growing concern over rising prices and climate change impacts on the economy.
This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.