US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was returning to the Middle East on Monday to promote a ceasefire plan, but complications within Israeli politics and silence from Hamas cast doubt on his chances for success.
Blinken, the top US diplomat, embarking on his eighth visit to the region since the outbreak of war, was scheduled to begin his trip in Egypt before heading to Israel later on Monday.
During his visit, Blinken is set to have private discussions in Cairo with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a crucial US ally in peace initiatives, and later in Jerusalem with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The purpose of Blinken’s visit is to advance a proposal announced by President Joe Biden on May 31, as he escalates efforts to bring an end to a conflict that has resulted in significant civilian casualties and strained relations with parts of his political base ahead of the upcoming elections in November.
However, Hamas, the group responsible for initiating the conflict with a major attack on Israel on October 7, has yet to provide a formal response.
Furthermore, the resignation of Benny Gantz, a key centrist figure, from Netanyahu’s war cabinet on Sunday adds a new element of uncertainty to US diplomatic efforts. Gantz, a former general who leads in polls as a potential replacement for Netanyahu if new elections are called, criticized the prime minister for not making the necessary decisions to achieve “real victory”, including developing a post-war plan for Gaza.
Gantz has positioned himself as a more cooperative partner for the United States compared to Netanyahu, who has a history of disputes with Israel’s essential ally. Biden recently suspended a weapons shipment to Israel and accused Netanyahu of prolonging the conflict for political gain, although he later retracted his statement.
In a departure from Netanyahu’s stance, Gantz visited Washington independently in March and has maintained regular meetings with Blinken in Israel, although a meeting during the current trip has not been confirmed.
– Border crossing complications –
The immediate impact of Gantz’s departure from the war cabinet could potentially eliminate a counterbalance to Netanyahu’s far-right allies who oppose any compromise and have threatened to withdraw support if Israel agrees to the ceasefire plan.
In a display of its ability to free hostages utilizing methods beyond diplomacy – a top priority for Israel – the country conducted an operation that resulted in the release of four Israeli captives and the reported deaths of 274 other individuals according to Palestinian officials.
Overall, Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has led to the deaths of at least 37,084 individuals in Gaza, primarily civilians, as reported by the territory’s health ministry.
Following Hamas’s attack on southern Israel in early October, 1,194 individuals were killed, the majority of whom were civilians according to an AFP estimate based on Israeli official data.
Under Biden’s proposed plan, Israel would withdraw from populated areas in Gaza and Hamas would release the hostages. The initial ceasefire would last for six weeks, with the possibility of extensions as negotiators work towards a permanent resolution.
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, stated that it is challenging to predict how the recent rescue operation will impact the ceasefire negotiations.
“If Hamas agrees to the current deal on the table, there would be no need for these kinds of operations as the hostages would be released peacefully without military intervention,” Sullivan commented in an ABC News interview.
Additionally, during his visit to Egypt, Blinken is expected to address solutions with Sisi regarding the reopening of the crucial crossing into Gaza at Rafah. The closure of this crossing for a month has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, leading to soaring prices of essential goods and raising concerns voiced by the UN about the risk of famine in the blockaded territory.
Israel took control of the crossing from Hamas and has attributed the closure to Egypt, while Egypt, the first Arab country to establish peace with Israel, has stated that drivers feel unsafe passing through what is now an Israeli checkpoint.
Prior to this trip, Blinken was in France where he participated in a state visit with Biden to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings by Allied forces in German-occupied Normandy.
After his visits to Jordan and Qatar, Blinken will return to join Biden at the G7 summit in Italy before concluding his trip.
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