Sometimes climate change appears unexpectedly, such as in the grocery store. In the last four years, food prices have increased by 25%, surprising Americans with the rising costs of staples like beef, sugar, and citrus.
A recent study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment warns that extreme heat is causing food prices to rise and predicts a further increase. This analysis suggests that “heatflation” could lead to a 3% annual increase in food prices globally and a 2% increase in North America. Extreme weather events could contribute to an annual inflation rate of 0.3% to 1.2% based on countries’ carbon emissions.
Based on the study findings, Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School, believes that these increases are significant, representing half of the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%. Recent reports from the Labor Department show a 3.2% increase in consumer prices over the past year.
The study draws a direct connection between heatwaves and rising food prices. For example, Europe’s record-breaking 9.2% inflation in 2022 was partially attributed to heatwaves that hurt crop harvests. Researchers anticipate significant price shocks in countries in North Africa and the Middle East where crops are already affected by high temperatures.
The study’s results, while striking, are considered conservative by Wagner, who expects follow-up studies to reveal even higher numbers. This paints a concerning future for food affordability, with climate change disruptions causing economic dislocation on a larger scale than the pandemic.
The term “heatflation” was coined to describe how extreme temperatures drive up food prices, highlighting the link between climate change and inflation. This term is considered more appropriate than “climateflation” due to the emphasis on heat as the main contributor to price increases. The study did not establish a strong connection between precipitation changes and inflation.
The research aligns with President Joe Biden’s 2022 climate change bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, which acknowledges the impact of climate change on rising prices. While initially seen as a marketing term, the act’s title may be more fitting in the long run. Wagner suggests that the name accurately reflects the bill’s purpose.
This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
